New Jersey Online Gambling Revenue Continues To Shatter Records

New Jersey online gambling numbers were released this week, and we are beginning to sound like a broken record. Literally, records were broken. Again.

Overall casino revenue and several individual operators set a new bar for measuring success. Outside of poker, there is very little bad news in the report. Poker, on the other hand, continues to have a hard time finding a positive trend line.

March 2018 online gaming revenue summary

Overall revenue was $25.6 million. It shattered the previous record set last month by more than $3 million. That is the most substantial one month increase since regulated gaming began. It is the third consecutive month revenue has been in record territory, a first for the industry.

Golden Nugget continues to stand tall above the rest, earning more than Borgata and Caesars combined. But the real story is that Caesars also posted record numbers and is the only operator to boast a month over month double-digit percentage growth in both the casino and its overall revenue number.

Borgata maintains its second-place position, but it is holding on by a thread. It is on the verge of slipping down a spot if Caesars continues to build on its strong earnings from the month.

Tropicana and Resorts remained flat in March. Even so, Resorts’ number was also in record territory. Tropicana was the only operator that came in under the $4 million in revenue mark.

Take note that the month over month numbers have been normalized to account for the three extra days in March.

New Jersey overall online revenue numbers

  • Casino: $23.6 million for the month
    (Up 5 percent month over month for a 21.1 percent increase year over year)
  • Poker: $2 million for the month
    (Up .2 percent month over month for a 12.7 percent decrease year over year)
  • Overall: $25.7 million for the month
    (Up 5 percent month over month for a 17.6 percent increase year over year)

Online revenue detail by operator

Borgata (Borgata, Party, Pala, MGM)

Second place has been home to Borgata for last few months, and that is true for March – barely. Caesars is only $170,000 off Borgata’s overall number of $4.58 million. Looking at the complete picture, Borgata posted decent revenue numbers with the casino up 9.77 percent month over month and poker up 5.52 percent. Poker is still falling short of last year’s numbers but posting a healthy number in positive territory is encouraging.

Borgata’s revenue numbers

  • Casino: $3.96 million for the month
    (Up 9.77 percent month over month for a 6.95 percent increase year over year)
  • Poker: $622,620 for the month
    (Up 5.52 percent month over month for a 4.31 percent decrease year over year)
  • Overall: $4.58 million for the month
    (Up 9.17 percent month over month for a 5.27 percent increase year over year)

Caesars (888, Caesars, Harrah’s, WSOP)

A new month means a new story for Caesars’ revenue picture. Last month it posted the biggest losses in both the casino and poker rooms. This month it had the biggest month over month percentage increase (31.35%) for the casino.

Poker is the same old story, though. It continues to struggle to find momentum. Its poker room brought in more money ($565,797) for March, but when the number is normalized to account for the extra days, it actually posted a decrease of 6.69 percent.

Caesars’ revenue numbers

  • Casino: $3.85 million for the month
    (up 31.35 percent month over month for a 56.48 percent year over year)
  • Poker: $564,797 for the month
    (Down -6.69 percent month over month for an 18.5 percent decrease year over year)
  • Overall: $4.41 million for the month
    (UP 24.83 percent month over month for a 40 percent increase year over year)

Golden Nugget (Golden Nugget, Betfair, SugarHouse)

Golden Nugget surpassed $8 million for the first time in March. Its position as the leader in the space is secure. It continues to dominate the market by earning more than double its nearest online casino competitor.

The online casino produced $8.65 million in March. Even with a record number, normalizing the revenue to account for the extra days in March, its revenue fell .86 percent month over month. Its year over year number continues to impress and sits at 40 percent.

Resorts AC (Resorts, Mohegan Sun, PokerStars NJ)

Resorts ended the month flat with month over month percentage increases of 1.27 percent for the casino, 1.48 percent for poker and 1.31 percent overall. The casino brought in $3.45 million, which is revenue record-setting month for the operator.

Resorts’ revenue numbers

  • Casino: $3.45 million for the month
    (A 1.27 percent month over month for a 5.03 percent increase year over year)
  • Poker: $778,949 for the month
    (Up 1.48 percent month over month for a 14. 29 percent decrease year over year)
  • Overall: $4.23 for the month
    (Up 1.31 percent month over month for a .84 percent increase year over year)

Tropicana (Tropicana, Virgin)

Tropicana didn’t cash in on some of the big revenue numbers posted by other casinos and remained relatively flat for the month.  Its monthly revenue of $3.69 million is a .28 percent decrease month over month for a 4.38 percent decrease year over year. Its small declines are the only month over month and year over year declines for casinos.

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Final Thoughts

Online casino numbers continue to skyrocket, while operators are still trying to find some footing on the poker front. Poker continues to negatively impact the overall year over year numbers for the industry.

It will be interesting to see if Hard Rock Atlantic City and Ocean Resorts Casino, two new New Jersey online operators expected to launch later this year, will offer poker or take a wait-and-see approach.

There is a lot of positive momentum on the national online gaming landscape. Legislation has new life in New York, while Pennsylvania is getting ready to launch online gaming later this year, and sports betting is on center stage awaiting what everyone hopes will be a positive decision from the Supreme Court.

All of that momentum could mean online gaming in New Jersey will continue to hover in record territory.

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Here’s Why MGM Buying Wynn’s Boston Casino Makes Sense

It’s been difficult to keep up with all of the news and rumors circling around Wynn Resorts. One piece of news that’s hard to ignore though is the potential sale of the Wynn Boston Harbor casino project to rival MGM Resorts.

Multiple outlets have reported the story, but by all accounts, a deal is in the very preliminary stages.

If talks progress, there are a lot of wrinkles to iron out beyond the sale price:

  • Massachusetts law forbids companies from holding multiple MA casino licenses.
  • Both companies are bound by host community agreements. Wynn’s is with Everett, while Springfield has a deal with MGM. These agreements allow the cities to veto any sale.
  • The host community agreements include guarantees of sizable investments in the city that neither community is likely to reduce in order to help facilitate a sale.

Basically, for this to work:

  • Both casinos would have to be sold in a short window of time.
  • Everett would have to sign off on the sale of the Wynn project to MGM.
  • Springfield would need to okay the sale of the MGM casino to whatever company emerges as a buyer.

As such, this would be one of the trickiest sales in gaming history.

There are a long list of other news items in the region that make a deal like this all the more far-fetched:

But maybe it isn’t that far-fetched after all?

The only way this makes sense

The following is pure speculation on my part. However, the only way this shuffling of casinos makes sense is if one, or both, of the Connecticut tribes were the suitor for the MGM Springfield casino.

That would result in a Wynn (ICWUDT) for almost everyone involved.

Good for Wynn

Wynn would benefit in a couple of ways.

First, it would bring the investigation in Massachusetts regarding Wynn’s suitability to a close. More than any other jurisdiction it operates in, Massachusetts has heavily scrutinized the Steve Wynn sexual misconduct allegations.

The fate of the Wynn license is still up in the air. Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chairman Stephen Crosby says the company is proceeding at its own risk while the regulatory group investigates.

“Wynn is making the decision to proceed,” Crosby told local press. “There is an investigation going on, and they will be doing this at their risk. That the decision they made and that’s fine with us.”

As such, by selling before there is a decision on the company’s suitability in Massachusetts, Wynn Resorts should still be able to get top dollar for the Everett casino. If they wait, and there is a negative ruling, they might have to unload the casino at a significant discount.

Good for MGM

MGM switching from its Springfield project to Everett would be a major upgrade in terms of the size and  location of its casino.

The Everett casino is roughly 15 minutes from Boston proper. Plus, at $2.4 billion, the property will be a world-class resort, capable of drawing visitors from around the globe. By comparison, the Springfield casino is in a western Massachusetts city with a population of around 150,000 and no major airport.

As long as MGM can offload its billion-dollar Springfield casino, taking over the Wynn Boston Harbor project would be a major upgrade.

Good for Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun

It’s no secret that Connecticut’s two tribal casinos are going to be hard hit by Massachusetts’ casinos.

So it wasn’t too surprising that both tribes made serious bids for Massachusetts’ casino licenses.

Unfortunately for the tribes, neither bid panned out. Foxwoods proposal for a Milford casino lost in a town referendum, and Mohegan Sun’s proposal at the Suffolk Downs racetrack was beaten out by the Wynn project.

To try to shore up their flank, the two tribes sold the state of Connecticut on a joint satellite casino near the Massachusetts border with Springfield.

I’ve likened the $300 million tribal casino that will sit about 15 minutes away from a $1 billion resort casino to bringing a knife to a gun fight. I think the satellite casino will struggle, but it will also have a negative impact on the MGM Springfield casino.

Whether it’s one of the tribes alone, or both working together, if MGM Springfield comes under its/their control the satellite casino is no longer needed.

Further, the tribe or tribes would get what they wanted all along, a Massachusetts casino.

Good for Massachusetts, and both casino cities

Massachusetts would be able to put the ugly mess of the Wynn scandal behind it, and at the same time put an end to the brewing casino border war with Connecticut.

The city of Everett would also put the Wynn mess in its rearview mirror and receive some much-needed clarity about the future of its casino project.

Springfield would eliminate the proposed satellite casino on its southern border, lessening competition in the region.

Bad for Connecticut?

The only potential loser in this scenario would be Connecticut.

However, the state’s inability to make decisions on what type of gambling expansion they support, despite the tribes imploring the legislature to legalize online gaming and sports betting, as well as the state’s unwillingness to write off the idea of opening up the state to commercial casinos, has likely frustrated the tribes and reduced their confidence in the state.

That said, if the tribes migrate to Massachusetts, it could make Connecticut’s gaming decisions much easier.

The state’s decision on land-based expansion would be made for it, with the  satellite casino permanently shelved and perhaps an agreement built into the sale that would see MGM drop its efforts build a commercial casino in Connecticut.

That would allow Connecticut to focus on sports betting and online expansion like the tribes want.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Online Poker Could Be Better Than A Bailout For NY Casinos

The movie Field of Dreams added the phrase, “If you build it, he will come,” into our lexicon. So much so, it looks like the state of New York took that phrase very literally when it decided to green light four commercial casinos.

The problem is, the state didn’t stick around to watch the end of the film where the true meaning of the phrase was revealed.

If you didn’t watch until the end, you missed the whole point of the movie. You end up thinking the film was about building a baseball field in the middle of nowhere that magically attracts visitors. In real life, New York copied this model and built four casinos in the middle of nowhere.

The difference between Field of Dreams and New York’s casinos? People in major population centers aren’t making the several hours long drive to go to the casinos.

The results… not so good

New York’s four new commercial casinos are as follows:

  • del Lago
  • Tioga Downs
  • Rivers Casino Schenectady
  • Resorts World Catskills

All four came up well short of their initial revenue projections last year. At least two, Rivers and del Lago, even petitioned the state for tax breaks. So far, the state has emphatically rejected the requests for help.

In its first year, Tioga Downs missed the low end of its tax target by 25 percent.

  • In its first year, del Lago missed the low end of its tax target by 27 percent.
  • In its first year, Rivers missed the low end of its tax target by 33 percent.
  • Resorts World has only been open for two months.

Tioga Downs

On Dec. 2, 2016, Tioga Downs became the first of the four new casinos to open its doors.

Tioga Downs was the closest to hitting its full Year 1 tax target of $31-$38 million, but it was still well short of the initial projections. The property sent $23.3 million to the state and local municipalities in FY 2017/2018.

del Lago Resort and Casino

The second of the four new casinos to come online was del Lago, which opened on Feb. 1, 2017.

The casino was projected to generate $59-$76 million in gaming tax in Year 1, but only managed to generate $43.29 million from $145.59 million in gross gaming revenue.

Rivers Casino and Resort Schenectady

Rivers had its ribbon-cutting ceremony a week after del Lago, opening to the public on Feb. 8, 2017.

In FY 2017/2018, the property sent $45.94 million in gaming tax to the state and local municipalities. That was well short of the estimated $69-$86 million it was projected to generate over the course of its first 12 months.

Resorts World Catskills

The final casino to open its doors was also the biggest, Resorts World. The $1.2 billion casino in the middle of nowhere opened on Feb. 8, 2018.

Resorts World hasn’t been open long enough to compare its actual revenue with projections, but thus far the numbers are falling well short of the projections.

The lesson of NY casino expansion

The New York casinos picked locations where they thought they would create the most economic benefit. The locations were also selected with appropriate buffer zones around the new and existing gaming establishments in mind.

What the state failed to consider was how locating the casinos in these far-flung areas would affect visitation.

At the end of the day, a good-paying casino job isn’t too good if there aren’t enough customers to sustain it.

What happens next for the ailing properties?

The state will now have to decide if it admits its error and lessens the burden (taxes or otherwise) on the casino properties, or if it will do nothing and simply cross its fingers and hope something like legalized sports betting will be just what the doctor ordered. For the moment, at least, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and others think doing nothing is the way to go.

Some sort of bailout would cut into the amount of tax revenue the state receives but would help put the businesses on more solid footing and avoid shedding a significant number of jobs created by the casinos. The latter would likely lead to at least one of these properties closing its doors in the not too distant future, barring some sort of miracle.

However, there is also a third option.

The state could throw these casinos a lifeline by legalizing online gaming.

Online poker, something that is already on the legislative agenda in 2018, would generate some $50 million in revenue for operators, which would work out to several million dollars in tax revenue for the state.

Furthermore, if the state has the stomach for it, the legalization of online casino games via a constitutional amendment would generate exponentially more money for the casinos and for the state.

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Five Must-Play Poker Tournaments In Las Vegas This Summer

The summer schedule is almost here in Las Vegas, Nevada. The World Series of Poker is the main attraction, of course, but 2018 is the biggest year yet for events taking place outside of the Rio. Multi-million dollar guarantees are happening on a weekly basis at properties such as Wynn, Venetian, and ARIA. There are a whopping number of “must-play” tournaments this summer and below are the top-five not on the WSOP calendar with buy-ins ranging from $565 to $5,000.

1. $1,100 MSPT Venetian DeepStack Championship Poker Series (June 3-8)

The Venetian’s summer events feature major guarantees for relatively small buy-ins and this summer’s $3.5 million guaranteed should be one of the largest. The Mid-States Poker Tour (MSPT) is teaming up with The Venetian to put on five live-streamed final tables and the opener for the combo should be an exciting one.

The 2017 schedule at Venetian featured the same buy-in and a $2.5 million guarantee that finished with 3,273 runners. A whopping $3.2 million was deposited in the prize pool and Nadar Kakhmazov topped the field to win a reported $440,029.

Players can count on a great structure as well with four starting flights of unlimited re-entry, a starting stack of 20,000, and 40-minute levels until completion.

Expect to see close to $4 million up for grabs by the time is all said and done with the winner emerging with close to 500 times their original investment.

2. $1,600 Wynn Summer Classic Championship (July 9-13)

The Wynn is one of the most preferred venues in poker and their Summer Classic Championship features peak amenities along with major cash.

The Wynn Championship is a $1,600 buy-in with $1.5 million guaranteed and starts five days after the final starting flight of the WSOP Main Event, giving players the ultimate “second chance” to end their summer on a high note.

The structure features 45-, 60-, and 75-minute levels and a trio of starting days. The 2017 Wynn finale carried the same buy-in with a $1 million guarantee that resulted in a $2.9 million prize pool. The tournament ended in a five-way deal with Olivier Busquet a part of it. Ardavan Yazdi took home the top figure of $237,610.

3. $3,500 MSPT Venetian DeepStack Championship Poker Series (June 25-June 30)

If you’re looking for a massive guarantee ($3.5 million), a loaded field and big blind ante, look no further than these dates. The 2016 and 2017 version of this event featured a $3 million guarantee and the stakes are even higher this time around.

MSPT and The Venetian are partnering to live stream this final table and should have top-notch talent on display. In the past two summers, prior final tablists included winners Javier Zarco and Andjelko Andrejevic along with Darren Elias, Brian Yoon, Omar Zazay, and Jonathan Karamalikis.

Entry for this tournament is available until Level 12 on Day 2 and features 60-minute levels for the duration of the event.

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4. $565 ARIA WPT 500 (June 25-July 3)

Small buy-in? Large prize pool? Elite venue? One of poker’s top brands?

The WPT 500 at ARIA features all of the above. The $1 million guarantee is just a starting number for how big this prize pool gets. Jon Borenstein emerged from a mammoth pack of 3,541 entrants to take home a career-high reported total of $230,000 last summer.

Past field sizes since the tournament premiered in 2014 are 3,599, 3,956, and 5,113.

Nine starting flights are available over the span of seven days before July’s Day 2. All Day 1s play into the money and give players the chance to cash re-enter at a later flight.

Bang for the buck is at a premium during the summer months and the ARIA is the king of this value beyond the WSOP.

5. $5,000 Card Player Poker Tour Venetian DeepStack Championship Poker Series (July 14-19)

The granddaddy of the WSOP Main Event post-lims is at Venetian once again. A $5,000 closer is the ultimate journey to the finish line to close out the summer for poker’s elite.

The Card Player Poker Tour brings a dynamite structure to The Venetian with 75-minute and 90-minute levels along with five days to reach a winner.

In previous years, the start of the event coincided with Day 5 of the Main Event and caught all traffic leaving the Rio. 2016 winner Jon Turner made back-to-back Day 5s on his way to a $536,858 score. In 2017, final tablists Ankush Mandavia and Renick Patterson both completed the feat.

This year’s Day 1A starts after nearly all other post-lims have completed and when the Main Event is at the final table which makes it interesting to see how big the 2018 field gets.

Still planning your summer schedule in Las Vegas? Be sure to check out the series schedules at the Aria, Venetian, Wynn, and of course the WSOP.

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Is One Pennsylvania County Luckier Than The Rest?

While the gambling news in the state consists of the Gaming Expansion Law, mini-casinos, and online gambling, the Pennsylvania Lottery released its 2016-2017 report card. Lehigh Valley Live decided to take a

Lottery residents and visitors to the Keystone State purchased $4 billion worth of lottery products including draw games, scratch offs, and fast plays. On average, prize money paid out equaled 65 cents of every dollar spent.

Each of the 67 counties produced winners. Lehigh Valley Live decided to take a look at which counties seemed “luckier” than others. After analyzing the data, it turned out some counties paid out more money per dollar than others.

The 10 counties with the highest Lotto payouts per dollar

If you spend your days dreaming about how you’ll spend your lottery windfall, you might want to head over to Montour County to make your dreams come true. Out of the $6.6 million in lottery sales, winners collected $6 million. That equates to 91 cents in prize money per every $1 spent on the lottery. By comparison, most slot machines in Pennsylvania casinos have a return to player of 89-90 cents per dollar.

It’s no secret that a lottery is a form of gambling. So it’s a bit ironic that none of the top 10 counties include a casino. And all of them had several townships that opted out of hosting a property during the mini-casino auction process. The top ten also had some of the smallest ticket sales.

The top 10 counties paying out the most prize money per dollar spent are:

County Ticket Sales Prize Money Per Dollar
Montour $6.6 million $.91
Somerset $22.5 million $.85
Clearfield $33.3 million $.79
McKean $13.6 million $.78
Cameron $2.3 million $.77
Lycoming $42.5 million $.77
Juniata $5.5 million $.75
Perry $11.9 million $.75
Blair $66.3 million $.74
Centre $28 million $.72

How counties with casinos stack up

Some people prefer to think of the lottery as the ticket out of their day job. And we’ve already established that it is a form of gambling.

Which begs the question, how did the 12 counties that host a casino do?

If you like to pick up a lottery ticket on your way home from a day at the tables, you might want to start gambling in Luzerne County. They paid 68 cents of every dollar spent on the lottery to a lucky winner.

Four of the counties with casinos paid out more than or equal to the average of 65 cents. And all but three counties sold more tickets than the top ten.

How the 12 counties with casinos fared:

County Casino Ticket Sales Prize Money Per Dollar
Luzerne Mohegan Sun Pocono $136.3 million $.68
Northampton Sands Bethlehem $77.9 million $.68
Erie Presque Isle Downs $86.4 million $.66
Fayetteville Lady Luck Nemacolin $54.6 million $.65
Bucks Parx Casino $169.5 million $.64
Dauphin Hollywood at Penn National $101.6 million $.64
Montgomery Valley Forge Casino $206.9 million $.63
Allegheny Rivers Casino $415.1 million $.62
Philadelphia SugarHouse Casino $544.1 million $.60
Delaware County Harrah’s Philadelphia $162.7 million $.60
Washington The Meadows Casino $63.4 million $.60
Monroe Mount Airy Casino $50.1 million $.59

How the PA Lottery benefits communities

The very first lottery ticket was sold on March 7, 1972, for 50 cents. The game featured weekly drawings and a grand prize of $1 million.

Whether you are a fan of the lottery or not, there is no denying the good it does for the state.

All of the proceeds generated through the lottery benefit programs for older Pennsylvanians. It is the only state lottery where 100 percent of its profits benefit the elderly.

During the 2016-2017 fiscal year, the lottery contributed over $1 billion to various elder programs. Since that first day in March, the lottery raised over $24.7 billion for programs, including:

  • Local services, senior centers, and Meals
  • Low-cost prescription assistance
  • Free and reduced-fare transportation
  • Care services
  • Property tax & rent rebates

The next time you buy a ticket, take comfort that while your dream of winning the lottery may not come true, you are making someone else’s life a little easier.

You know what they say … You can’t win if you don’t play. Depending on how you look at it, you can count yourself a winner either way.

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Opinion: Don’t Write Off Poker Variants Before You’ve Tried Them

My colleague Martin Derbyshire recently offered up his thoughts on PokerStars newest cash game format, Split Hold’em. In his column, Marty called the game a potential “rake trap,” simply because it’s a split pot game. That is something I strongly disagree with.

In fact, I’d argue that Split Hold’em is a lot like Power Up, a game that looks like it’s built for recreational players, but is actually more skillful than traditional Hold’em. Unfortunately, because it takes a bit of effort to figure out, and because so many in the poker community are going to dismiss anything PokerStars does as a cash grab, it’s easier to look at the exterior than examine the inner workings of the game.

This is not going to turn into a defense of Split Hold’em or any other PokerStars game, rather it’s a defense of split pot games, and warning against believing what you might hear from the peanut gallery.

There’s a lot of money in those games

The simple fact is, most poker players don’t understand the intricacies of split pot games. And it’s not because I think it’s over anyone’s pay grade; rather, they simply lack the appropriate experience with these formats and have decided to regurgitate talking points, like:

  • It’s a showdown game, so you can’t bluff.
  • Starting hands run close in value so you can’t raise.

Or, as Marty said:

  • A good player’s edge is reduced in split pot games.
  • The pots are almost always split, so only the house wins.

To be fair, there are grains of truth in each of these statements, but as any high-low player will tell you, for the most part they’re exaggerations, bordering on falsehoods.

The nuance of split pot games

The skill gap between a bad player and a good player is reduced in a split pot game, at the same time, the skill gap between an ok player (which most people are in modern poker) and a good/great player increases.

And yes, high-low games definitely reduce variance. That leads to three different dynamics, all of which are, in my opinion, positive:

  • Even though it might take longer, and a bit more of their money will end up in the house’s hands, losing becomes inevitable for bad players.
  • Mediocre players lose very slowly, and are more likely to overestimate their skill level.
  • Winning players will have fewer big losses.

And as Marty said, the pots are often split. That might prolong the number of whacks the rake gets at each chip, but not enough to make winning impossible, or even difficult.

Even at the lower limits, high-low games can be some of the best in the casino.

When I played poker professionally Omaha 8 was my main game on the weekends. The games play much larger than the stakes, and it wasn’t uncommon for pots in a lowly $5/$10 KILL game to fall in the $800-$1,000 range during KILL rounds. When a higher games were spread, the play was only slightly better.

Split pot games aren’t “rake traps” or less skillful, they simply require different skills and a different approach.

The best way to describe a split pot game is that those half-pot wins are like digging a hole with a spoon, but every now and then someone hands you a shovel and you scoop the pot.

Without turning this into an Omaha 8 strategy guide, I’ll just leave it at: there’s plenty of money to be made in split pot games.

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Don’t knock it until you try it

Dismissing any game without giving it an honest assessment is a bad idea.

In my friendly home game (where a typical cash game pot is maybe $10 or $20) we often play a progressive Seven Card Stud game that requires you to have two of the following three things to win the pot:

  • The best five-card hand
  • The highest spade in the hole
  • The lowest spade in the hole

The game usually lasts five or more rounds, so the pot gets pretty big, relatively speaking.

On its surface, the game seems to have little skill and is little more than exercise in passing money back-and-forth, since no one except the nittiest player ever folds.

One poker playing friend found the game silly, and couldn’t understand why I’d like it since it had so little skill.

First, it’s fun. But there’s also a skillful element to it because of the lineup.

If every player was good it would be a stupid game with zero skill, but that’s not the case. The people I play with aren’t playing perfectly. The skill of this game is knowing when to bet.

Here’s how this game almost always plays out:

  • Someone juices the pot on the first round or two (we typically play $.25-$3 spread limit), and basically everyone is in for about $10-$15.
  • The game continues round after round and people are less willing to put money into the pot without a good shot at the pot.
  • At some point, someone starts to think they have the game won and makes a couple max bets on 6th-7th street. Sometimes they win, and sometimes the game goes on.

The difference is, when I start with a good hand (something like KK or QQ with the King or Queen of Spades in the hole) I’m hitting the pot pretty much throughout, so instead of getting $6 out of every player I’ll get $12-$15 when I have an equity advantage.

Even though it’s basically a showdown game, when I win, I win a $150 pot. When everyone else wins, they win $100. If you know when to bet, this game is a lot like getting odds on a coin flip.

My point is, it would be easy to just dismiss it as a game where everyone basically has the same equity, just as it’s easy to repeat certain myths about split pot games.

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