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Don’t Panic: Sports Betting Laws Will Have Almost No Effect On Your Office Pool

Whether you religiously watch college basketball or pick teams based on the school mascots, you’re likely coughing up a few dollars to fill out a March Madness bracket at some point this week.

NCAA brackets are hard to avoid. It seems like every bar, every office, and every circle of friends partakes in an NCAA tournament pool. Even though the money involved is usually short — with a bracket entry costing somewhere in the $5-$20 range — estimates put the amount wagered on March Madness brackets at around $3 billion.

And in most cases, these bracket pools constitute illegal gambling. At least for the time being.

SCOTUS to rule on sports betting case

The combined sports and gaming worlds are on pins and needles waiting for the Supreme Court of the United States to render a decision in Murphy (nee Christie) vs. The NCAA, a case that could pave the way for legal sports betting across the United States.

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of New Jersey, states can determine their own sports betting destiny. This raises the question:

What does that mean for the yearly NCAA bracket pool I fill out?

The short answer is: regardless of how the SCOTUS rules, don’t expect anything to change.

The full answer is a bit more nuanced.

Are bracket pools really illegal?

In a press release highlighting the amount of money wagered illegally on the NCAA tournament, Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the AGA, said:

“Our current sports betting laws are so out of touch with reality that we’re turning tens of millions of Americans into criminals for the simple act of enjoying college basketball.”

That’s a bit of an overstatement. Actually, at least 13 states seem to have exemptions for casual pool betting. It’s not too far off from the truth though.

Per ESPN’s David Purdum:

“A legal analysis commissioned by the AGA, a Washington, D.C.-based lobbying group representing the casino industry, found that real-money sports pools, including NCAA tournament bracket pools, are “generally illegal” in 37 of 50 states.”

The good news is, even if your office pool does violate your state’s gambling laws, you don’t have to worry about going to jail for filling out a bracket. The chances of being prosecuted for participating in a typical NCAA tournament pool are close to zero.

“I would say that the chance of prosecution would be the same as being struck by lightning,” Joseph M. Kelly, a business law professor at Buffalo State College told Law360 in March 2016.

“If it is just an office pool, where the winner takes all, in theory you are violating the law in about half the states, but in practice you are not going to be prosecuted,” Kelly said. “I just can’t imagine a prosecutor taking time to go after a casual player.”

Would the SCOTUS decision extend to pools?

If the SCOTUS decision opens the door for states to legalize sports betting, the authorization of pool betting would likely find its way into legislation.

That would potentially allow licensed sportsbooks or online operators to run NCAA pools alongside traditional sports wagers.

It will be interesting to see is if any of the state-level laws try to strengthen prohibitions on unlicensed pool betting.

It’s somewhat unlikely a state would, given the pervasiveness of this type of casual betting. It’s even more of a long shot that those laws would be enforced, but it’s not out of the question.

If a state decides to authorize pool betting, there would almost certainly be language that prohibited pool betting by unlicensed entities.

Alternatively, a state exploring sports betting legislation could use the opportunity to rewrite some of its existing gambling laws. These states could carve out small-money casual pool betting, as some 13 states have already done.

But as noted above, the most likely outcome is that nothing changes.

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NJ Online Gaming Scoop: Cash Game And Tournament Traffic For The Week Of March 5

We are still waiting for the historical spring bump in New Jersey online poker traffic to come to fruition.

Overall, both cash game and tournament traffic remained relatively flat for the past week. Usually, one would hope for growth, but after these last few weeks the state can be content to be consistent.

In the previous month, the Turbo Series at PokerStars and the New Jersey Poker Classic II at 888poker did not provide the boost to cash game traffic that a good tournament series often provides.

Hopefully, the two series on deck will have a better result in bringing players to the virtual felt.

WSOP.com is offering an Online Circuit Ring Event on March 18 in conjunction with World Series of Poker Circuit in Atlantic City. The event is the first of its kind in New Jersey; WSOP.com held one last month in Nevada.

Players can also look forward to the 17-event Garden State Super Series hosted by Borgata.com which is also scheduled to get underway on March 18.

Both sites are currently running satellites. It will be interesting to see if all the tournament activity will finally translate into cash game traffic.

Of note: This week, WSOP/888poker posted a 52% decrease in cash traffic. This number is so far out of the norm that we consider it an outlier.

We are speculating when we say that there was most likely a problem with data collection or a possible outage that affected the numbers. We are researching the cause and will update this article if more information becomes available.

With that said, let’s take a detailed look back at the cash game and tournament trends in the New Jersey online poker market for the week ending March 11, 2018.

New Jersey’s online poker operators

New Jersey has seven online poker sites operating on four separate networks.

During the week of March 5 – March 11, New Jersey online poker sites averaged 258 cash game players, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous week’s number of 254.

Peak traffic numbers came in at 563 players, a decrease of 15.3% from the previous week’s figure of 664. The busiest night of the week was on Tuesday, March 6 with 752 players hitting the tables. That number was a significant improvement over last week’s peak of 718 which was on a Thursday.

As mentioned up top, the traffic numbers are somewhat skewed because of 52% decline in traffic on WSOP/888. We have some inquiries out to see if there is an explanation. For now, consider this an outlier most likely caused by an error with the data. If we get confirmation on the actual cause, we will update this article.

Here’s how those players are distributed across the four online poker networks.

Borgata-MGM-partypoker

The seven-day rolling peak traffic average for partypoker was basically flat logging 185 cash game players, for a 1.1% increase compared to last week’s number of 183.

WSOP-888

The seven-day rolling peak traffic average for WSOP/888 was 105 cash game players. Compared to last week’s number of 220, WSOP/888 posted a 52.3% decrease in traffic.

As mentioned, we consider this week’s number an anomaly and most likely caused by an error with the data. We researched possible causes for such a drastic drop, and there was nothing reported that would explain the numbers posted throughout the second half of the week.

PokerStars NJ

The seven-day rolling peak traffic average for PokerStars was 260 cash game players. Compared to the 250 players that the site averaged last week, PokerStars saw a small increase of 3.7%  in traffic.

Pala Poker

  • Platform provider: Pala
  • Sites in network: PalaPoker.com

After two weeks without data, we have cash game traffic numbers for Pala Poker. We were also able to retrieve the numbers from last week for comparison.

The seven-day rolling peak traffic average for Pala Poker was 13 cash game players, a 21% increase compared to last week’s traffic number of 10 players.

Unfortunately, since Pala Poker is still struggling to gain significant traffic, a double-digit increase doesn’t translate to helping the overall landscape.

*Cash game traffic data provided by PokerScout.com. Collected March 12, 2018.

Evaluating cash game traffic trends

As mentioned several times already, the WSOP/888 network saw a significant drop in numbers, about 52%.

Such a drop is usually an indication of a problem with the collection of the data. It could also be attributed to some sort of outage which could affect the numbers for days.

We are attempting to find an explanation but take this week’s traffic trends with a grain of salt.

Eliminating the WSOP/888 from the analysis basically leaves New Jersey cash games posting very small increases – except for Pala Poker which posted a double-digit increase. Of course, that doesn’t mean much with only an average of 17 cash game players.

It’s impossible to see which operator came out on top without accurate numbers from each online poker room. What we do know is Pala Poker is still struggling to find its footing.

The previous week of tournament series failed to translate into a significant increase in cash game traffic. Here’s hoping this week will buck the trend.

Tournament Report: A look at the Sunday Majors

Each week, the four online poker networks host a signature Sunday tournament. The week did not include any significant poker tournament series. The major tournaments this week were:

  • The Borgata/partypoker/MGM online poker network hosted a $40,000 guaranteed tournament with a $215 buy-in.
  • The WSOP.com and 888 network hosted the $215 Ultimate Warrior $40,000 guaranteed tournament, also with a $215 buy-in.
  • PokerStars NJ hosted the Sunday Special, a $200 buy-in with a guaranteed prize pool of $45,000.
  • Pala Poker usually hosts the $1,000 Guaranteed Pala Mega Rebuy with a buy-in of $30.

Major tournament results for March 11, 2018

Sunday, March 11 was the first Sunday in a while where there were no special series on the tournament calendar. All online poker operators offered their regularly scheduled Sunday majors.

Total registrations for the major tournaments was 679 players. Compared to last week’s number of 668, registrations were basically flat.

PokerStars is continuing the overlay trend it set three weeks ago. However, the overlay is shrinking in size each week, coming in this past Sunday at $732.

Pala Poker also posted an overlay, hosting only 17 players to its Sunday tournament. Pala recently lowered the guarantee from $2,000 to $1,000. It would not be a surprise to see them lower the guarantee again.

All eyes will be on partypoker and Borgata who is hosting the Garden State Super Series beginning March 18. Satellites to the GSSS and to partypokerLIVE MILLIONS North America at Playground Casino in Montreal are currently running.

The chance at a live poker package is always popular with the players.

Then there’s the World Series of Poker Circuit currently in Atlantic City with an Online Circuit Ring event also scheduled for March 18.

With two big tournaments scheduled for Sunday, March 18, it seems logical to expect more than the 1.65% increase in registrations realized this week.

And with that, here’s a look at the total number of entries for the largest tournament held on each of the three main online poker networks in New Jersey:

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Customer Motivations A Hot Topic In Recent Joe Ingram Poker Life Podcast

Why do people play poker? That’s one of the topics CoinPoker Head of Security Michael Josem discussed with host Joe Ingram on the Poker Life Podcast last week.

The duo touched on everything from online poker security, to politics, to facial hair over the course of nearly two hours. The two saw eye to eye on most of the topics that came up, but agreement went out the window when the topic shifted to PokerStars (Josem’s longtime employer) and the current state of online poker.

The topic of why people play poker and how a site can appeal to them starts at about the 40-minute mark in the video below and lasts for about 30 minutes.

What are we talking about here?

The 30-minute exchange highlights what has become a widening disconnect between the industry and professional players when it comes to recreational players.

On the one hand, professional players like to point out the number of people that fell in love with the nuance of the game and the aspirational effect of its top practitioners.

And on the other hand, the industry is focused on tailoring its products to the majority of people, which in 2018 means a fast-paced, entertaining environment.

Unfortunately for everyone involved, the conversation is mostly people talking past one another, with few people willing to accept that both sides’ ideas aren’t mutually exclusive. A site can offer highly-skillful contests in a competitive environment alongside fast, fun, unbeatable games.

Casting a wide net

As Josem pointed out on several occasions, it’s important to appeal to everyone. And with more than 50 percent of online gaming taking place on mobile devices, you can’t expect the games that were popular 10 years ago to have the same appeal today.

“You’re not going to be sitting there for eight hours playing the Sunday Million on your phone,” said Josem. “A), you’ll run out of battery, and B), you’ll ruin your neck.”

As Josem put it, “If you want to make a 2010 product and sell it in 2018, yeah, go ahead and do it; for both of your customers, good luck to you.”

But that doesn’t mean the Sunday Million is a dinosaur and headed towards extinction. The people who enjoy it simply need to understand that it needs to exist alongside Spin & Go’s and other games, even if the Sunday Million becomes a bit less popular.

Are Spins good for poker?

Ingram next asked Josem if he thought Spin & Go’s are good for players.

“Different people want different things,” Josem answered. “When you go to a restaurant you have a menu,” to select from.

This is the first really important point that came out of the interview:

The best way to grow online poker isn’t to find the “right” product that appeals to everyone, it’s to offer a full menu of options that different customers with different tastes can choose from. 

To his credit, Ingram said he doesn’t mind Spin & Go’s. But the reasoning behind his acceptance flies in the face of the “full menu” mentality.

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Does poker need to be beatable?

For Ingram, whether something is good for players boils down to whether the game is beatable, and he’s ok with Spin & Go’s because he believes the format is beatable.

He went on to draw a clear line at other formats that appeared to be unbeatable. “That’s where I have an issue,” Ingram said.

“Hopefully we don’t go the complete route of these complete lottery-style games. I don’t know if we’re going to go that way. I hope not.”

At that point Josem interjected. Even though he agrees that nothing but gambling-type games would be a bad route for poker to go down, he made it clear that it’s not up to him, or Joe Ingram, to determine what other people should do with their time and money.

“That might not be what you or I want,” said Josem, “but let me give you a hot tip; there are a lot more people playing roulette [unbeatable casino games] than there are poker, and in that sense, not everyone wants to win.”

Josem used the example of social games to underline this point, noting that if a person decides to make an in-app purchase, the social games have a 100 percent rake. People play these games and make these purchases because they enjoy them, not because of a possible financial incentive.

The good news is traditional poker games will always exist for those interested in pursuing a career on the felt, but the industry can’t force them to be as popular as they were during the poker boom.

Forcing players to certain games

The idea that there are people playing poker with no desire to improve is something most poker players have a hard time wrapping their heads around, and Ingram wasn’t entirely buying what Josem was selling.

According to Ingram, non-traditional games, and the marketing of these games, is driving people away from poker:

“That comes down to the debate of what do people want, but at the same time keeping poker intact and what people love about the game.

“Poker might not be as popular as some of these crack cocaine lottery games but at the same time, I think as poker players out there, like myself and other players, we do have to advocate and say all right, let’s not completely change our game and drive all of our players that want to play traditional poker away to these other game formats.”

Ingram went on to say that even though more of these hypothetical players might enjoy the other formats, the goal shouldn’t be to turn poker into crack cocaine lottery-style poker games: “It’s not poker to me, it’s a different game, it’s not what I’ve come to learn as poker, come to love as poker.”

And that’s where the back-and-forth became interesting.

“When you talk about driving people from one thing to another that’s a bit of a misnomer,” Josem said. “The players have moral agency. The players are human. Let them choose what they want to do.”

Ingram countered with his belief that the way marketing dollars are being spent and the type of content being created to promote poker is pushing people away from traditional variants and towards more gambling games.

“You have the ability to sway people’s opinions on what they should play and why they should play it,” Ingram said. “And if you tell them the Spin & Go is the most fun thing to play, well they’re  going to think that.”

That’s simply not the case.

Marketing will only take you so far

By Ingram’s logic, a casino could steer every customer towards its highest margin game and convince them that it’s the best game in the world.

In the real world, casinos offer dozens of games and different slot machines, because, like Josem pointed out, different people want different things.

The popularity of Spin & Go’s isn’t due to them being forced down players’ throats, it’s because customers wanted them (or something like them) and after giving them a try they discovered they enjoy playing them.

The people who hate Spins might dislike the lack of skill or increased variance. But the people playing Spins might hate the monotony of a cash game, or the time commitment of a tournament. They’re not playing them because they’ve been bombarded with ads and tricked into liking them.

“It’s difficult for me to think of a successful service that survives and grows purely on marketing,” said Josem. “At the end of the day, the marketing will get the customer in the door the first time, but for them to stick around and be there in the long-term you’ve got to have a good product.”

This is the second important point from the podcast:

If a product is good, a marketing campaign can have a big effect. If the product stinks, or it’s a product no one wants, no amount of marketing is going to save it.

For proof of this, look no further than all of the recent failures in the online poker space.

Spin & Go’s aren’t the only reinvention of poker in recent years, and despite plenty of marketing and investment these other products haven’t caught on.

Amazingly, the professional players arguing that marketing efforts can drive recreational players where the site wants are repeatedly telling recreational players what’s best for them and what they should be playing, and can’t figure out why it’s falling on deaf ears.

Ingram and others are simply overlooking a simple fact: Most poker players aren’t inspired to play poker by the same things that inspired him, and have no desire to be a professional poker player or care about the things professionals care about.

Beyond that, times have changed. When online poker was booming smartphones weren’t a thing, and online poker wasn’t competing with mobile apps, streaming services, and the like.

At one point Josem said, “You can’t force people to play six-max PLO.” I would have added… just because you like it and find it stimulating.

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